The Fed hasn't met yet, but the market has already priced the hike in. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.759% yesterday. That's the rate companies borrow at and families pay on a mortgage — not the one set in the Fed's meeting room. Why? Two reasons. First, prices are still rising: July's cost of living ran 3.54% above a year ago, against the Fed's 2% target. Second, Fed Chair Warsh said publicly he intends to keep tightening. So on prediction markets, people betting real money now put a September hike at 54.5%, and "no cut at all this year" at 88.5%. Who pays for the more expensive money? Look at what fell hardest yesterday. Nasdaq −0.64%, nearly double the S&P's −0.35%. Smaller companies, −0.62%. The more a stock leans on "we'll make a lot later," the harder it dropped — when rates rise, money you won't earn until later is worth less today. If the hike does land on Sept 16, the market may barely move. That bill has already been paid. None of this is settled. "No change in September" still carries 44.30%. And even if the hike lands, whether a second one follows in December is sitting right at 48%. NFA.