The odds on a Fed hike haven't moved all day. The money traded on them tripled. Six days out from the September 16 decision, Polymarket prices a 25 basis point hike at 53.5% and no change at 45.5% — identical to yesterday. But 24-hour volume on that market went from $1.56M to $4.86M, up 212%. It is now the most-traded market on the platform. Flat price, exploding volume: both sides are hitting the same number in size, and neither is convincing the other. That isn't consensus forming. That's disagreement getting louder. The number that matters more than the meeting itself: 2026 ending with zero cuts prices at 92.95%, and a September cut at 0.45%. The market has taken cuts off the menu. The ECB hiking 25bp today prices at 99.65%. Both central banks are pointed the same way. Equities agree. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.837%, up another 3 basis points. The Nasdaq fell 0.64%, 1.3x the S&P's decline. Higher rates, harder to hold expensive growth. August CPI is next. The board has headline monthly at 0.4% (51.5%) but core at 0.2% (66.0%) — those point different ways. Energy and food, not the sticky part. If core really prints 0.2%, that 53.5% loosens. NFA.