US August CPI lands tonight. The market prices a September hike at 61.5%. A cut? 0.45%. This is the last inflation print before the Fed decides on the 16th. There is no second one. Three markets, three directions: CPI MoM — 0.4%, at 53.5%. Last month: 0.1%. A bet that monthly price growth quadrupled. CPI YoY — 3.4%, at 51.5%. Last month: 3.4%. A bet that nothing moved. Core CPI YoY (food and energy out) — 2.4%, at 48.5%. Last month: 2.5%. A bet that it's still cooling. Why this reaches past the print: hike odds moved 8 points yesterday, 53.5% → 61.5%. Silver fell 5.3%, copper miners 7.0%. The S&P fell 0.58%. Rates move, and whatever pays you nothing gets hit first. Cuts are barely on the board now. September cut: 0.45%. "Zero cuts in all of 2026": 92.75%. And December flipped overnight — hike overtook hold, 43.5% → 59.5%, twice the move September saw. The market isn't repricing one meeting. It's repricing the path. What actually moves that 61.5% tonight is the core print. The peak bet is 2.4%, but 32% of the money sits on 2.3%. Come in at 2.3% or below and inflation is falling faster than expected — the case for a September hike weakens, and that 61.5% slides toward hold. Come in at 2.5% or above and the hike side only hardens: only 15% of the money is on 2.5%-or-higher, so almost nobody is covered for it. (The three CPI markets have traded $23,741 in 24 hours — watchlist only, too thin to trade off. NFA.)