The Fed is all but certain to hike on Wednesday. The next one the market prices isn't until December. Odds on a 25bp September hike: 79.5%. A day ago, 61.5%. The move came from Friday's August CPI. Prices rose 0.4% in a single month — four times July's 0.1%. Going in, 36% of the money sat on "0.3% or lower." Had that printed, the Fed had a reason to wait another meeting. At 0.4%, that 36% went to zero. Nothing got worse. The option to wait just disappeared. But the print only moved next week's meeting. October shifted just four points toward a hike (32.5% → 36.5%). December moved two points the other way (59.5% → 57.5%). Line up all three and the priced path reads: hike in September at 79.5%, hold in October at 61.5%, hike again in December at 57.5%. One, skip, one. One more thing that lines up: September and December are the two meetings where the Fed also publishes officials' own rate projections — the dot plot. October doesn't. The two meetings priced for a hike are the two where the Fed has to show its hand. Stocks traded that script on Friday — S&P +0.86%, and the VIX collapsing 11.21%, from 17.84 to 15.84. All three CPI cuts (0.4% monthly, 3.4% annual, 2.4% core) landed exactly where the market had priced them, so nobody got scared. Nobody was celebrating better inflation. They were celebrating not having to guess. Bonds are not buying the script. The 10-year yield rose another 3 basis points to 4.975%, up a second straight day. The 10-year prices the average rate over the next decade — if bonds believed in a quarterly hike or two and done, that number should be falling. Stocks are betting the hikes are slow and short. Bonds are betting they run longer. Only one of them gets to be right. Next: the Fed decides Wednesday 09-16, 2:00pm ET — with a fresh dot plot, the officials' own projections for the next two to three years. Whether they hike is settled Wednesday. Whether they keep hiking lives in that chart.