Most countries won't do what it takes to build their own frontier AI. But they don't want to be dependent on foreign AI without a backup. @SamWinterLevy and I argue there's a middle path: AI middle powers could retain 'AI Breakout Capacity'. There's precedent: Japan doesn't have a nuclear weapon, but always retains the capacity to build one on short notice. Middle powers can make strategic choices today to ensure their ability to build frontier systems tomorrow: onshore compute, secure chip purchasing rights, sustain pre-training expertise, and create the right legal basis and private-sector vehicles for a sprint. They'd still have to spend big to build frontier systems later on. But the longer they retain breakout capacity, the longer they can afford to wait: to see if interdependence with America can work, or until their electorate will let them go all-in on an AI moonshot. Until then, the middle path is their wisest choice: hope that U.S. alignment works out, but retain the capacity to deal with being cut off for good. Read more in our latest for @CarnegieEndow's @CEIPTechProgram: