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Aric Chen
@aricchen
Independent analysis on China, US-Asia & global affairs. Executive producer, senior editor & anchor. Foreign policy think tank mentor. Notes: @AricChenJournal
参加 September 2009
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[ Field Footage ] This is the most despairing scene I have seen recently. A house still stands in a brown torrent that has already erased everything around it. People cling to a balcony and a rooftop while a wall of mud, ice, rock and water tears through the Nepal–Tibet valley. They are not statistics. They are a family waiting to learn whether the next surge will take the last solid ground they have. Pray they are alive. Pray rescuers reach them before another pulse of water arrives. What makes this footage unbearable is not only the force of nature. Reports from the Nepali side say the surge began upstream, on the Tibetan side of the Lhende/Bhotekoshi system, after a glacier collapse sent debris into the river. Downstream communities say they received no timely official warning from Chinese authorities. Locals, not Beijing, first raised the alarm. Water on the Trishuli rose as much as nine metres in about thirty minutes. That half hour is the difference between running uphill and being trapped on a balcony watching the world vanish. China later denied any failure to warn and pointed to the suddenness of an ice-rock avalanche that even river gauges could barely catch. Fine. Then explain why a promised cross-border early-warning mechanism, discussed after a 2025 flood on the same river system, was still unsigned when this one hit. Upstream silence is not a technical footnote. It is minutes stolen from people who had nowhere to go. Hundreds are dead. More than a thousand remain missing, including foreign pilgrims and trekkers. A house that refused to fall is not a miracle story. It is a last, thin line between life and the river. May that family still be on it. — Aric
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