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CHOI
@arrakis_ai
AGI is Here
参加 September 2023
1.4K フォロー中    12.6K ファン
Jeff Dean and Demis Hassabis may be moving in opposite directions from Google’s day-to-day AI business, but the shift could be more strategic than it appears. Google increasingly looks like a company that believes current frontier models are already capable enough to support very large businesses. If that is the case, the priority naturally moves from pushing model intelligence at any cost toward productization, distribution, inference, chips, cloud infrastructure, and applications. That changes the role of frontier researchers inside the company. Researchers like Dean are still focused on how far intelligence itself can be pushed. His new company reflects that belief directly. The premise that a small number of highly committed researchers can invent more than the world’s largest research organizations suggests a model built around concentrated talent, faster iteration, and far less organizational friction. The environment now makes that structure possible. A small group of elite researchers can raise billions of dollars, secure enormous amounts of compute, and receive meaningful pre-IPO equity without remaining inside a large technology company. The gap in resources between a frontier lab inside Google and a newly formed startup has narrowed considerably, while the ownership upside outside Google has become much larger. This creates an unusual structure in which the departure of researchers does not necessarily mean that Google loses economically. Many of these new companies still depend on the same infrastructure. They raise outside capital and then spend heavily on compute, cloud capacity, and AI accelerators. Google can invest in some of them, provide TPU capacity, and collect cloud revenue as they scale. The larger the frontier AI ecosystem becomes, the larger the market for Google’s infrastructure can become as well. In that sense, Google may be evolving toward something closer to a distributed spinout model: frontier research spreads across smaller, highly concentrated companies, while the parent ecosystem captures value through capital, infrastructure, and distribution. The incentives can work for both sides. Researchers gain autonomy, speed, and equity. Google reduces the need to keep every frontier researcher inside one organization while still participating in the growth of the market those researchers create. Hassabis fits into the same transition from another angle. By stepping away from daily operations and spending more time on science, while product and commercialization responsibilities move elsewhere, Google’s internal structure also becomes more clearly divided between scientific exploration and commercial execution. The broader shift is that frontier intelligence and AI commercialization no longer have to advance inside the same organization. Google may be increasingly focused on turning existing intelligence into products and revenue, while smaller research organizations continue pushing toward more capable systems. If those organizations continue to rely on Google’s compute and cloud infrastructure, their expansion can strengthen Google’s economics rather than weaken them. The strategic question for Google may no longer be whether every breakthrough happens inside DeepMind. It may be whether Google can become the infrastructure and application layer that captures value regardless of where the next breakthrough happens.
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Announcing Discovery Loop! I am very excited to announce that, along with my longtime friends and collaborators @Sanjay_Ghemawat, @OriolVinyalsML and @quocleix, we are founding Discovery Loop (@DiscoLoopAI), a Public Benefit Corporation whose mission is to automate machine learning, science, and engineering to accelerate discoveries and progress. The four of us have worked together for 14 to 30 years, and have helped build some of the world’s most used products, infrastructure and AI models, and we’re excited to turn our attention to this ambitious endeavor. ♾ Learn more at:
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