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Austin Campbell
@austincampbell
Founder of @ZKZeroKnowledge Teaching @NYUStern Zero Signal & Zero In:
参加 February 2023
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I don't think this is actually related to AI. Companies are just fat and weak. Having been at some of these organizations, most are bloated, have too much bureaucracy, and have teams that range from neutral to negative value due to principal-agent problems and empire building. However, management doesn't want to get themselves fired, so they also need a "fake because" other than "we are dumb and can't manage well" as a reason to fire people. So they look for fake reasons. Often this happened when you had an adverse business event, when you could get away with hiring McKinsey or whomever to tell you to do it and blame them, or now, because of AI. This is the classic "fake because" to do a thing that should have been done a long time ago.
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When it first came out, so many smart people told me that the @citrini 2028 Intelligence Crisis article was a ridiculous sci-fi story that would never come to pass. And tbc @citrini themselves said it was a tail risk. But honestly if you revisit the piece many of the seemingly far-fetched predictions in the article are slowly, but not slowly, coming to pass. Agentic AI is making it easier to make that uncomfortable and annoying call to cancel services you don’t use. It’s also helping you shop, fundamentally changing how businesses interact with customers. The threat to jobs, esp white collar jobs in industries that already had a lot of bloat or organizational slack, is very much real. Every large western company likely could do just fine with 20-30% fewer headcount. I don’t think firms will lay off people and displace them with AI en masse now. Not when business is good and margins are rising and everyone’s just focused on meeting demand. But when the next recession or slowdown comes and companies inevitably part ways with employees, it’d be a Herculean task imo to persuade firms to hire these human workers back instead of trying to replace their work with AI or existing employees doing more with AI.
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