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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Macro investment research at Our total return index is at The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
参加 September 2010
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I get the idea that there might be some version of Yield Curve Control (YCC**) or other government intervention to hold down interest rates. But remember, what's freaking the market is inflation. If the Fed and/or Treasury does anything to suppress interest rates that is perceived as inflationary, such as expanding the balance sheet, not cutting interest rates when it is expected, shortening duration, or outright bond buying, which is perceived as stimulative. The market will take this as potentially creating more inflation, and the result will be even higher interest rates. What the market wants to bring yields down is a commitment to getting inflation under control. You want mortgage rates down; HIKE(!) the funds rate. -- ** A number of people are arguing for YCC. They should know it has a perfect track record... of never working! This is the ultimate definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
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It’s all fun and games until mortgage rates start surging. They’re now approaching 7%. You see what’s happening with the US government stepping in to support the Japanese yen? The Treasury market is next.
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