For months, the situation on the Sloviansk front has been deteriorating The new Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian 🇺🇦Army, Mykhailo Drapaty, must respond as the first Russian 🇷🇺 units have reached approximately 10 km east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Since the fall of Siversk in December 2025, attributed to errors by several local commanders, this front has been the most successful for the Russian army throughout 2026. Not only have Russian forces managed to consolidate their hold on Siversk, which had resisted them for three years, but they have also pushed 10 to 15 km westward, drawing significantly closer to the last major urban centers of the Donbas: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. While a future assault on the cities from the east seems unlikely due to the terrain, this strategic position allows the Russians to monitor and bomb the urban area and its logistical supply lines. Three weeks ago, the first Russian infiltrators were captured in Mykolaivka, a town about 10 km east of Sloviansk. Recently, Russian soldiers have been spotted in buildings on the eastern edge of the town; this could signal the imminent start of the battle for the town, which serves as the eastern gateway to Sloviansk. Russian forces are advancing on Mykolaivka along two main routes, following the Siverskyi Donets River and moving through forests via Kryva Luka, Pyskunivka, and Starodubivka, while taking cover in houses and wooded areas. Countering these infiltrations is difficult due to the dense forests along the Donets River. The second infiltration route runs through a forest north of Rai Oleksandrivka. Russian forces have been actively using this forest for over a month to enter Rai Oleksandrivka. This small village, seemingly insignificant at first glance, is actually of strategic importance, as the surrounding high ground overlooks the city of Sloviansk. In recent weeks, Russian forces have been consolidating their hold on the village and the surrounding heights, even though Ukrainian troops still maintain positions in many areas. Further south, the situation is hardly better. Russian forces are infiltrating daily along the Donets Canal, with some units crossing this canal, which serves as a makeshift fortification, to advance toward Kramatorsk. Several villages west of the canal have thus shifted into the "gray zone," a source of growing concern for the Ukrainian command. If these infiltrations continue, we could see the first Russian soldiers in the Bilenke district of Kramatorskbefore the end of the year. Why is the situation so difficult for the Ukrainians? First, the geography complicates the Ukrainian defense: the Donets Canal aids the Ukrainian defense just as much as it facilitates the Russian offensive. The situation here mirrors the one described yesterday, but in reverse. Crossing the canal, reaching Mykolaivka, and massing troops there is a highly complex undertaking. The Russian army will face the same challenge: crossing the canal, particularly around the Sloviansk power plant and its network of waterways, will come at a very high cost, especially given the extensive fortifications the Ukrainians have built in the area over recent months. Consequently, it is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged. Another key factor is the high frequency of Russian airstrikes targeting forests and buildings, particularly in Mykolaivka, as illustrated in the map included in the following tweet. Ultimately, Ukrainian resources in the area are insufficient - comprising only five or six brigades - though doing better is difficult given the local logistical challenges. Russian losses in the sector are significant, particularly when troops are forced to advance across open ground; nevertheless, this has not halted their steady progress this year. In the coming weeks, attention must shift to the Donbas, specifically the area between the Donets River and Dobropilla, where the Russian army is concentrating its forces. Elsewhere, however, potential offensive opportunities are opening up for Kyiv. Thank you for following this new analysis. Sources include open source data, sattelite images, geolocated videos and some private sources.