scatterbrain stuff 1. A memecoin's price is the market price of a tail scenario. Full stop. A perpetual call option on collective belief with no expiry or strike. Its value is roughly probability of the big outcome × size of the big outcome (plus some of intermediate outcomes). Take the tail event away and there's nothing to price other than speculation on speculation which unravels by logic and turns the token into a hot potato. Thus, if terminal holders don't believe in the tail outcome that a meme flips BTC, the L1 it's built on, a chipmaker and/or the stock market, it has no value. FTSM or bust. 2. Anyone on CT who clowns on Murad for his recent Token2049 speech should ask himself why not one session out of roughly 200 answers the only two questions that matter: Why is a 17-year-old asset class still a rounding error next to the stock market? Why does almost everyone outside this building dislike crypto? btw. the closest the industry gets to an answer is Day 2, where BlackRock, Fidelity, Nasdaq and Morgan Stanley talk tokenization and Samsung puts USDC in the wallet. Read between the lines. The plan is no longer to make the tokens matter but to put the S&P 500 on crypto rails and collect the fees. Make the technology invisible, hide the wallet, never say "crypto" to the customer. 3. On that note, there's a yuuuge divide in crypto: plumbing-versus-belief split. The rails camp sees crypto as a cheaper, faster back office for TardFi shenanigans such as dollars, treasuries and stonks. The belief camp thinks crypto's point is to create new kinds of assets. If the rails camp wins completely, tokens become a file format, money.pdf . Crypto melts into the back office and the value flows to issuers and incumbents. 4. But also, if crypto mostly becomes rails, then belief tokens become the only genuinely new thing in crypto. Everything else is old stuff moving through faster lanes. 5. Read Max Weber. He described modernity as the steady disenchantment of the world: everything gets rationalized, measured, and turned into a process. The belief camp is trying to re-enchant money. To make it once again carry meaning, myth, ritual, community. 6. The rails camp denies the value of a token in and of itself and it can't even do that properly because it moves belief-based tokens all day (such as tokenized dollars). It just insists the belief must be guaranteed by an institution. Make no mistake. Stripped down, the rails camp is saying that only institutions should be allowed to mint belief. States, banks, asset managers are legitimate issuers and a community of weirdos on the internet agreeing on something new is not. That's a claim about who gets to create value, dressed up as a claim about what value is, so in essence, it's all about permission. 7. For most of history, the value of meaning flowed upward to the patrons who commissioned art, the labels that owned the songs, and, for the past two decades specifically, the platforms that turned a generation's memes, jokes, images, and friendships into advertising revenue. Culture was made from below and monetized from the top. Belief tokens reverse that flow, letting the community that creates the meaning hold a stake in what it becomes. If the rails camp wins, it will have built a better bank. Wow. If the belief camp wins even once, it will have changed who gets to own the value of what we believe together. 8. Fuck the 500