ghøst(@decenterghost):ECMWF from Europe GFS from the US ICON from Germany JMA from Japan UKMO from the UK Five independent weather models looking at the same question For weather prediction markets, the median can be the same while the quality of that number can be completely different If all five models give you around 85°F, you have five independent forecasts pointing in roughly the same direction But if the median is still 85°F while the forecasts range from 80°F to 90°F, then 85°F is just the middle of a disagreement Same market Same median Completely different signal

ghøst

@decenterghost

I count what others feel | Prediction market portfolios | Sport·Math·Edge | Models, not magic | @CoinMarketCap

参加 May 2012

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ghøst@decenterghost

2026.08.25 03:36

ECMWF from Europe GFS from the US ICON from Germany JMA from Japan UKMO from the UK Five independent weather models looking at the same question For weather prediction markets, the median can be the same while the quality of that number can be completely different If all five models give you around 85°F, you have five independent forecasts pointing in roughly the same direction But if the median is still 85°F while the forecasts range from 80°F to 90°F, then 85°F is just the middle of a disagreement Same market Same median Completely different signal