Deedy(@deedydas):Argentina beat 1 in 116,000 odds to comeback against Egypt and England to reach the World Cup final. I analyzed ~100,000 games to see just how miraculous it was. Of 37,013 one goal deficits at 85', only 282 (0.76%) have been overturned, and only twice in World Cups. This is 8 days after the 0.11% chance of coming back from a two goal deficit at 79' against Egypt. We've never seen a run quite like it in World Cup history.

Deedy

@deedydas

Partner at @MenloVentures. Investor: Anthropic, OpenRouter, Modal, Wispr, Pangram, Inception, Goodfire, PrimeIntellect prior: Glean, Google Search. Cornell CS.

参加 August 2011

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Deedy@deedydas

2026.07.16 15:00

Argentina beat 1 in 116,000 odds to comeback against Egypt and England to reach the World Cup final. I analyzed ~100,000 games to see just how miraculous it was. Of 37,013 one goal deficits at 85', only 282 (0.76%) have been overturned, and only twice in World Cups. This is 8 days after the 0.11% chance of coming back from a two goal deficit at 79' against Egypt. We've never seen a run quite like it in World Cup history.