David Schamis(@dschamis):Well - as I often do, I overthought this one. It turned out to be as simple as the other three. @HyperliquidX was marking $CXMT at ~¥42.70 the day before listing. Yesterday the stock opened ¥49.50, traded as low as ¥38.39, as high as ¥55.00, and closed at ¥49.00. The HL mark sat inside the first day's range. From an IPO price of ¥8.66. I spent the weekend arguing there had to be a scarcity premium baked into that price, since offshore money is locked out of A-shares entirely. There wasn't. If anything the perp marked below where the stock actually cleared - and it has traded at a discount to the A-share ever since. What did hold up was the mechanism. At 11:00 Shanghai time the contract converted from a pre-IPO perp to a standard equity perp - external oracle, funding multiplier from 0.005 to 0.5. You can see it in the funding data to the hour: a 107x step, exactly where @tradexyz's docs said it would be. And the part I didn't see coming: post-conversion funding has been negative the entire time. The perp is trading below its oracle - meaning longs are currently being paid to hold it, not charged. The moral, again: Hyperliquid delivered accurate and valuable price discovery ahead of a major IPO. That's four in a row now - @cerebras, @SpaceX, @SKhynix, and now CXMT. @HypeStrat $PURR #pricediscovery

2026.07.27 12:24

Well - as I often do, I overthought this one. It turned out to be as simple as the other three. @HyperliquidX was marking $CXMT at ~¥42.70 the day before listing. Yesterday the stock opened ¥49.50, traded as low as ¥38.39, as high as ¥55.00, and closed at ¥49.00. The HL mark sat inside the first day's range. From an IPO price of ¥8.66. I spent the weekend arguing there had to be a scarcity premium baked into that price, since offshore money is locked out of A-shares entirely. There wasn't. If anything the perp marked below where the stock actually cleared - and it has traded at a discount to the A-share ever since. What did hold up was the mechanism. At 11:00 Shanghai time the contract converted from a pre-IPO perp to a standard equity perp - external oracle, funding multiplier from 0.005 to 0.5. You can see it in the funding data to the hour: a 107x step, exactly where @tradexyz's docs said it would be. And the part I didn't see coming: post-conversion funding has been negative the entire time. The perp is trading below its oracle - meaning longs are currently being paid to hold it, not charged. The moral, again: Hyperliquid delivered accurate and valuable price discovery ahead of a major IPO. That's four in a row now - @cerebras, @SpaceX, @SKhynix, and now CXMT. @HypeStrat $PURR #pricediscovery#

David Schamis@dschamis

2026.07.26 19:45

Well, tomorrow's the day for solana:gf9VEb8NqCUgCNNo1sz47LT4gvUvsHJmhW6Q1ndpump - Asia's biggest IPO of 2026, priced at ¥8.66 (~$1.28) on Shanghai's STAR Market. @HyperliquidX has had it at $6-7 for two straight weeks. My call here is different from @SpaceX and @cerebras , so let me be precise. I expect it to open well above ¥8.66. I do NOT expect it to reach the Hyperliquid price - and I don't think it should. That gap isn't purely a valuation call. You need RMB 500k in a mainland account to buy a STAR Market IPO, and offshore money was shut out of the book entirely. HL isn't competing with a market global investors can access. It IS the access. So I expect a premium to persist after listing. That premium is the price of admission - what someone outside the mainland pays for exposure they otherwise cannot get at all. One thing changes tomorrow. Pre-IPO these contracts run a funding multiplier of 0.005 - basically free to hold a big premium. On conversion @tradexyz flips them to the standard 0.5 against the real Shanghai price. That's 100x the carry, overnight. So: sharp compression, but not to zero. Where it settles is the market's honest price on access. SK Hynix's ADR settled ~15%. China's A/H premium has run 20-50% for years. That's the number I'll be watching tomorrow. Not the pop. And zoom out - because in ten weeks Hyperliquid has taken on two of the biggest structural problems in capital markets of the last 50 years: 1. IPOs priced below clearing, moving value out of issuers and their existing shareholders and into the pockets of the buyside. 2. The world's second-largest equity market being effectively closed to everyone outside of it. Same venue. Same mechanism. Continuous price discovery, open to anyone. @HypeStrat $PURR #pricediscovery#