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tae kim
@firstadopter
"Key Context" Substack covering AI and chips. Reached #1# new bestseller first 24 hrs Subscribe "Be so good they can't ignore you"
参加 October 2008
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CNBC: "Amazon’s AWS posts fastest growth since 2021, citing AI and chip demand"
Wow. Amazon AWS. Huge beat. AWS revenue $42.2B vs. $40.5B est. AWS going to $1 trillion in revenue? Memory demand/shortage to last for years to 2028. This is incredibly bullish for AI chips trade across the board. Amazon earnings call: “We've done this before in the first era of cloud computing. Just over a longer time horizon, where demand built more gradually than it has in AI. But we see the margins and returns in AI tracking what we saw with core at the same point of evolution. Actually, a little ahead. We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about 200 billion. But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 to. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. And remember, enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications. We've long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion dollars revenue business and now believe it will be at least double that and very possibly be $1 trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital.”
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