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tae kim
@firstadopter
"Key Context" Substack covering AI & chips. Reached #1# new bestseller first 24 hrs Subscribe Tell the truth. Be accurate. Be right
参加 October 2008
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Oct. 28: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on AI sector financial conditions tightening. Iran War -> Energy prices -> inflation -> the discounting of forward rate policy matters. "CHAIRMAN WARSH: Thank you, Claire. So, there was a narrative for quite a while, maybe even in this room over the course of the last several press conferences, well, they're going to raise rates, they're talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI, because the returns that investors are expecting are so different. I was skeptical of that view. Interest rates get in the cracks, interest rates affect directly or indirectly, almost everything. And what have we seen? Since early September what we've seen inside of the technology complex, outside of the technology complex, whether you pronounce it AI or SI, Claire, is up to you, what have you seen? Interest rates have had an effect. You've seen market participants that are discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out. For others you've seen some tightening in financial conditions, but not significantly. So on the thrust of your question of -- with respect to the new technology and this investment surge, do interest rates matter? I believe they do. And I don't believe that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy."
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Fine, I'll play the Bill Ackman role here. The White House needs to realize financial conditions are tightening as markets deteriorate. Soros reflexivity at work. Credit and equity funding may dry up even though the underlying fundamentals and payback periods are solid. We're at the end of the runway on $110+ oil, inflation and rates. We need credible Iran war resolution now to lower energy prices/inflation/rates or risk the most senseless self-inflicted recession in history.
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