Still seeing a lot of misconceptions about the broader picture, so here’s a TL;DR for dummies. The economy (and markets) are in for a rough ride short term. Four main reasons: tariffs, doge, borrowing costs focus, and AI capex slowing. We’re shifting from injecting liquidity to pulling it out, and that’s going to hurt. 1) Tariffs – The U.S. collected $56B in tariffs last year. That’s jumping to $500B. Some gets absorbed by producers, but most gets passed to consumers as higher prices. More expensive goods = less spending = slower growth. 2) DOGE (Government Downsizing) – Massive federal spending cuts are on the table - potentially 40-50%. Clinton did a smaller version in the ’90s (10-20% job cuts), and we got a budget surplus. AI might soften the blow like the internet did back then, but in the near term, cutting $500B to $1T from the economy means less liquidity, lower demand. 3) Borrowing Costs – Trump's focus has shifted. Before, he watched SPY. Now, it’s all about the cost of borrowing. This shift in focus is like forward guidance - the market is already front-running it. If he pressures for lower rates, the Fed might resist, keeping borrowing costs high. If he succeeds, inflation risk rises. Either way, businesses and consumers carrying debt are in a bind as markets adjust in advance to the changing narrative. 4) NVIDIA & AI Capex Slowing – AI hype propped up the market for the last two years, but signs of slowing are emerging. I've long said to watch NVIDIA closely. Microsoft's lowered capex guidance weeks ago was a signal. NVIDIA's growth expectations were sky-high, but even after an earnings beat, it dropped. Then we had Mag7 priced to perfection—if AI-related spending slows, expect profit-taking and a broader tech unwind. --- Big picture: Less government spending, higher costs, tighter credit, and AI cooling off. The medicine might be needed long term, but short term, expect pain. That doesn’t mean straight down only - we also know how sporadic Trump is. There will still be plenty of focused/micro opportunities to trade. As it has been all cycle: Traders > Holders.