Gary Black(@garyblack00):Correlation is not causation. I would argue there are two main reasons $TSLA has grown EV share in the U.S.: One, ICE manufacturers significantly scaled back their EV investments in 2025 to reduce losses. The other major reason was the complete redesign of Model Y beginning in March 2025 (Project Juniper). 1/ Ford, GM, Honda, Volkswagen and others cut or ended several EV SKUs after losses - examples: Ford F-150 Lightning production ended; Honda Prologue and VW ID.4 were discontinued or winding down. Fewer alternatives left Tesla as the default choice. 2/ Tesla Model Y received its first major redesign in early 2025 in what became known as Project Juniper. It was revealed in China on January 10, 2025, with orders opening in North America and Europe later that month. Deliveries began in March 2025. This was the first comprehensive update since the original Model Y launched in 2020. Changes included a new exterior with full-width LED light bars front and rear, a quieter cabin (acoustic glass, better insulation), retuned suspension for a smoother ride, improved efficiency and range, ambient lighting, power-folding rear seats, and a rear passenger touchscreen. Through August 2026, TSLA U.S. sales are -2% YTD vs overall TSLA -16% YTD and overall U.S. EVs -30% YTD. It’s implausible that FSD is driving $TSLA share gains when few outside of TSLA bulls on X are aware of FSD. That said, I continue to believe that if TSLA invested in FSD advertising it would drive TSLA U.S. EV and overall market share meaningfully higher.

2026.09.13 19:51

Correlation is not causation. I would argue there are two main reasons $TSLA has grown EV share in the U.S.: One, ICE manufacturers significantly scaled back their EV investments in 2025 to reduce losses. The other major reason was the complete redesign of Model Y beginning in March 2025 (Project Juniper). 1/ Ford, GM, Honda, Volkswagen and others cut or ended several EV SKUs after losses - examples: Ford F-150 Lightning production ended; Honda Prologue and VW ID.4 were discontinued or winding down. Fewer alternatives left Tesla as the default choice. 2/ Tesla Model Y received its first major redesign in early 2025 in what became known as Project Juniper. It was revealed in China on January 10, 2025, with orders opening in North America and Europe later that month. Deliveries began in March 2025. This was the first comprehensive update since the original Model Y launched in 2020. Changes included a new exterior with full-width LED light bars front and rear, a quieter cabin (acoustic glass, better insulation), retuned suspension for a smoother ride, improved efficiency and range, ambient lighting, power-folding rear seats, and a rear passenger touchscreen. Through August 2026, TSLA U.S. sales are -2% YTD vs overall TSLA -16% YTD and overall U.S. EVs -30% YTD. It’s implausible that FSD is driving $TSLA share gains when few outside of TSLA bulls on X are aware of FSD. That said, I continue to believe that if TSLA invested in FSD advertising it would drive TSLA U.S. EV and overall market share meaningfully higher.

Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

2026.09.13 14:53

Jon Ward, a LA marketing executive, bought a Model Y in April - his third @Tesla. He said he never seriously considered another brand because of his reliance on FSD (Supervised). “I use it basically all the time,” Ward said. “It’s almost like, why would I bother driving? This does it so well.” Recent auto-sales data shows that Tesla is gaining ground in the U.S. EV market as legacy automakers retreat from battery-powered cars. Tesla is back to comprising more than half of the U.S. EV market, with a 52% share in 2026 through August, up from 43% a year earlier, according to Motor Intelligence. While Tesla’s U.S. sales so far this year represent a 16% decline from a year earlier, the overall EV market has contracted more, down 30%. As I said a couple days ago, FSD has become a major driver of Tesla sales in North America.