September 16, 2026. FOMC rate decision and projections at 2:00 PM ET, Warsh press conference at 2:30 PM.
Markets price close to 90% odds of a quarter point hike to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023, after core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, above forecast.
The hike itself is largely priced. The dot plot is what decides whether this is a single move or the start of a cycle.
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