Labs and software
Yesterday, we (
@MarathonMP) met with a friend who’s a leader at a top AI lab.
They advised us to not invest in software companies.
We asked “Why? Will your lab build it?”
They said: “No, it’s because anyone can now build it.”
Pure software companies that don’t have several of the 8 moats (below) will be challenging to build into venture scale businesses.
That said, the ease of building software means there will be lots of small specialized lifestyle software companies that don’t need to raise venture at all and can stay profitable. That’s a great thing!
BRAND AS A MOAT?
I’ll be honest - I struggled whether to include Brand in this list of moats.
I ultimately decided not to, because I think it’s too hard to measure, and in many cases the underlying brand strength is due to something something more fundamental — network effects, switching costs, or scale economies — that the brand merely reflects.
A strong brand is often the symptom of a real moat, not the moat itself.
The danger of counting Brand as a moat is that it flatters companies that are actually quite fragile. WeWork had a brand. Peloton had a brand. Both burned through goodwill the moment the underlying economics cracked. Brand without a structural underpinning is just reputation — and reputation is rented, not owned.
So I think about brand the way I think about customer loyalty scores: useful as a signal, dangerous as an explanation. When someone tells me a company’s moat is its brand, my follow-up is always the same 2 questions. (a) what built the brand, and (b) can that be replicated? That answer usually points to the real moat, or in many cases, reveals there isn’t one.
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