Here are a few other predictions/surprises re: Anthropic: - The (subsidized) consumer plans are actually very GM+ because the features that select for hardcore users are all pay-per-use (ultra code/review/plan + excess Fable usage) - The recent change around "Preserved Thinking" was intended to break routing more than distillation and will increase revenue per task significantly ( - Mythos is the first of many models that will be vertically integrated into industries and sold as outcomes vs APIs. Dario described token-level price discrimination based on outcomes so this shouldn't come as a surprise. Overall I think the market underweights how sophisticated anthropic has been in aligning its business interests with its technical and mission interests. (BTW all of this is personal speculation - i have no insider information).