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Ivan Burazin
@ivanburazin
building @daytonaio
参加 January 2009
1.6K フォロー中    22.9K ファン
Credit is going to be the biggest constraint, not the GPUs themselves. This will be the biggest trigger for consolidation in this ai wave. Will be a fun 2027
I’m saying that in the medium term (next year or two), opencode will struggle to get their next clusters to scale, and their largest bottleneck will be credit. If i had to guess what @thdxr’s biggest problems in getting new clusters are, i suspect they would be the following: - everyone is sold out - all the new clusters have long lead times and no matter what dax wants to pay he can’t get it earlier - everyone asks him for a large prepayment, say 30% to 100% on a long contract. If he asks for a shorter contract, the prepayment % goes up, not down. - any cluster he wants is likely to be delayed - he’s asked to bet his demand over the next several years, and if he’s wrong in one direction, the business either doesnt grow or blows up. all of those problems are the same credit problem i am describing. OpenCode’s incentives, regardless if it’s what they want to do, is to sign larger, long term contracts with credit worthy counterparties. This is the same problem that @ivanburazin just hit with Daytona. Daytona isn’t IG, and the cloud they signed up with couldn’t get the debt, so that cloud came back and asked them for a larger prepayment, because the terms of the clouds debt wasn’t expected.
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