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Joe
@joedab12
Sold my finance co in 2021, now trade/invest full time. Specialty is finding semi/AI infra inflection points before the breakout. Lots of receipts. Zero AI slop
参加 March 2013
548 フォロー中    10.8K ファン
$VICR closed at 253.50 on August 17th only to be quickly faded and pounded back to the 170s within days. Now this level is acting as strong support-prob a low risk place to stash some shares away. Why did this area that was rejected so quickly turn into support recently? Lets look at whats happened since then. -Vicor purchased an existing building that has clean room space for fab2, this building is the same size as their fab1 which is en route to producing 1.5b a year in product revenue. -This same building location has enough land to build at least 2-3 more fabs. -They purchased another site minutes away with enough land to build yet another 4 fabs, yes they now have space for 7-8 fabs. They have said many times they expect to need a "multiplicity of fabs" because of where GPU/XPU's are headed, next gen advanced packaging architectures make VPD MUST HAVE, not "nice to have." -They filed lawsuits against Delta/MPWR/Quanta/Flex/CLS/Foxconn and many others both in the ITC and in the Texas district court(ITC would not issue a monetary award, only would ban importation of certain infringing products, Texas court could issue monetary award to Vicor-likely lead to settlements before it gets that far) -After they bought that land and filed those lawsuits, they signed a license with a "leading AI OEM" for VPD products that OEM is purchasing from other companies that are infringing Vicor IP. How do we know they are infringing Vicor IP before the lawsuits are decided? Exactly- we dont, but the "leading AI OEM" signed a license anyway-they must know Vicor has a very strong case and can't jeopardize putting their supply chain at risk with an exclusion order issued by the ITC- -Last friday, the ITC accepted the case and decided to move on-and immediately after, Foxconn, Luxshare and Hon Hai(foxconn parent) put out press releases that came off a bit defensive. -Yesterday, Morgan Stanley who is bullish on Delta-says Delta has "high single digit percentage"(I'll assume 7% for conversations sake) of 2026 revenue that could be affecgted by Vicor case. Delta is doing 25b this year, thats 1.75b in revenue that Morgan Stanley believes is potentially using Vicor IP. Vicor is a 12b market cap company-huge implications here.
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