Jonatan Pallesen(@jonatanpallesen):Lula had a gain that was spread all over. I don't see how such a pattern could emerge from election fraud. Instead, Lula succeeded in activating people who had voted blank or who did not vote in the first round in 2026, after not succeeding with this in 2022. I don't know how, but that is what must have happened. Certainly a surprising result. I think there is a useful lesson about the large potential of activating more voters. Possibly Lula's team had some approach in the pocket and purposefully held it back for the runoff round.

Jonatan Pallesen

@jonatanpallesen

Analyses and visualizations. PhD in statistical genetics. Westernist. Less immigration, more births.

参加 October 2015

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Jonatan Pallesen@jonatanpallesen

2026.10.28 14:58

Lula had a gain that was spread all over. I don't see how such a pattern could emerge from election fraud. Instead, Lula succeeded in activating people who had voted blank or who did not vote in the first round in 2026, after not succeeding with this in 2022. I don't know how, but that is what must have happened. Certainly a surprising result. I think there is a useful lesson about the large potential of activating more voters. Possibly Lula's team had some approach in the pocket and purposefully held it back for the runoff round.