Anthropic IPO Consensus Views: - Overvalued at $1.5T - Revenue is flattening - Token are commoditized due to open source - Token prices falling faster than demand - Anthropic shouldn't go public b/c robbing general public of upside and passing on risk. - Anthropic is Twilio but for intelligence. Contrarian - Anthropic is still a 10x from here and has venture upside. - $80B ARR reported by WSJ is just primarily coding agents and will re-accel with Fable / Mythos - Finance, legal, life sciences, Ode are all super early ... - Agents = still early and most businesses think of AI = ChatGPT / Claude app. - Anthropic will zoom past $100B ARR EOY with release of Fable 5.2 / Mythos 5.2 - Retail is starving for direct exposure to frontier labs and will ape in and drive Anthropic to $3T marketcap. - Anthropic is easily a $500B revenue business in 2030 with simple assumption Fortune 500 spent 0.1% of OPEX today ... Stripe spends 1% and not crazy Fortune 500 replace labor with tokens in 2030. 1% of OPEX would imply 10x of the $75b revenue Q3'26 so $750B revenue in 2030. Full thesis + model coming out Wednesday H/T @zhengjielimm