The tail is wagging two dogs. Brooks speaking some deep insights and charts don't lie. U.S. policy is no longer about a clean inflation target. It is about stopping long-term yields from blowing out. Huge deficits. Rising debt. Emergency-feeling Treasury buybacks. A hawkish Warsh speech that looks more like yield defense than a September hike. China did the same thing with oil. It spent years filling tanks with cheap Russian and Iranian crude - on the order of 1.0–1.4 billion barrels. When Iran blew up, Beijing slashed imports by ~3 million barrels a day and sat on the stockpile. Oil did not go vertical. America is capping the price of debt. China already bought the price of energy. Bonds are pricing U.S. supply. Oil is pricing Chinese tanks.