As I expected, Trump taco during the weekend as US10y is at max pain. NQ bounced 500 points since then.
Sold all $SOXL at $148, which was bought at $137 in Friday post-market.
Still can’t rule out the path of a fake breakdown of 28200 (like 27500) with a quick reversal this week(Wyckoff accumulation).
Will patiently wait after Wednesday to decide long or short.
NQ is at key level 28200, AAII analysis is super bearish, NAAIM exposure retraced a lot, market breadth is good, US10Y is at 52 week high and Trump’s max pain point, market priced in July FOMC 25bps hike at 40% chance, the rest of mags already got punished just in case they gave a similar negative FCF as GOOG. HF net leverage at 78%. Seems like all negative catalysts are priced in already and
I think the setup supports a short term bounce at least, similar to days after 11/20 last year, but it’s hard to imagine how the path looks like.
My favorite setup is a fake breakdown 28200 then a quick recovery.