RE: ongoing saga in policy from Aug+ warsh/bessent "collusion or not" is overriding most ppl's minds which makes the broader situation unclear (actually, obfuscation might be one of the goals of the admin). this is bullish as a very clear next buyer exists around asymmetry on what actually matters; specifically, 9/9 is MUCH more important for BTC/crypto than FOMC. most ppl, including most of CT, mistakenly do not see it this way not going to gloss over the takeaways for first 2 streams (i have made them both of these free below if you have the patience to listen) but pt 1 was regarding origin of intervention and pt 2 on warsh's incoming slant for jackson hole on how the 3rd stream is developing - punchline here is that as of mon/tues this wk, "debasement false start" view is actually slightly too early & this is actually quite a good spot to be long BTC ("TINA") beginning-of-wk notes: - mkt is overweight on 4B exactly as an anchor for 9/9 - my forecast is that bessent's 1st buyback on 9/9 will be of moderate scale to signal he is serious to bond bears (he just helped smoke yen shorts) - warsh will not actually hike as mkt bear flattened for them. term premium scales down - BTC is TINA as it is the cleanest pure-play on global yields continuing to go up. this will be better understood going into 9/9, and possibly after it