Dear Joe, I don't find your framing useful. A prediction market on a football result does not affect the result. If the traders in the market are more bullish on Messi scoring, that does not change the probability of Messi scoring. Here the Treasury market does contain information about expected policy, but the market also changes the economy the Fed reacts to, so that votes depend on outcomes and outcomes on votes. So FOMC members are not setting the path as some external allmighty force, they are revising their decisions according to what they observe. And the further you go out into the yield curve, the less their discretion matters for rates. So you could easily argue, as you move further and further out: look, they will do what they will have to do, all I need to have is a good view of long run trends in asset supply (deficits, asset valuations, investment e.g. in AI) and asset demand (inequality, aging, etc) and that will give me my rstar and rstar gives me my long rate, and that will be what the long end prices, and the committee will vote what they have to. Calling this a prediction market on FOMC votes is a bit like saying that the thermometer is a prediction market on whether I have my coat on. It is not. Yes it does correlate. But the weather determines both the thermometer and the coat.