I have been trying to reiterate this message to the OIL IS FLOWING NEAR PRE-WAR LEVELS, IRAN HAS LOST CONTROL crowd for a few weeks now. You could be getting 100% of the pre-war flow out of the Persian Gulf and it could not possibly matter less for the price of crude because as long as ships are consistently getting hit, the baked in cost to move that oil is going to be astronomical. Freight rates for crude used to be 2-3% of the delivered cost, it is now approaching 30%. That is simply not sustainable for the industry and it will continue rising as the pace and success rate of Iranian attacks on shipping increases. Iran is not losing control of the Strait, it is loosening its grip. They still retain ample capacity to strengthen that grip as needed, as we saw this week with a big jump in attacks and reduction in exports from the week prior. What does that mean going forward? Nothing good. The US Navy is still too terrified of Iranian anti-ship capabilities to put destroyers anywhere near the Strait and without a physical naval escort presence, Iran will continue to have enough success with these attacks to keep freight rates astronomically high and like usual, that cost is going to be passed on to the consumer. It is going to get worse before it gets better. I would not be surprised if Brent opens over $103 tomorrow unless we get a heavy dose of Sunday Market Manipulation from the administration.