I think the market is overpricing a Fed hike. Going in with 50% of a new $5K predictions portfolio, and may increase sizing if the odds for a hike spike more on Friday's CPI print. I won't claim claim to have much differentiated alpha here or to have a high degree of certainty, but when I see genuinley attractive odds, I like to go for them. We're in a trap here. If Warsh hikes and the US government can't afford the interest on debt that's 120% of GDP, the long end goes higher. If Warsh is dovish and inflation stays hot, the long end goes higher. The only logical course of action is to step up long end buybacks more and more aggressively because both scenarios end the same way? The cheapest fix is getting the short rate down so Bessent can fund more buybacks with cheap bills and If that still doesn't hold the long end, the Fed steps in and buys it directly. Now may not be the time to cut, but it's certainly not the time to hike. Don't forget Bessent and Warsh both worked for Druck with the same macro worldview, and Bessent pushed him for the job. Why would they not be working towards the same strategy?