Michael Pettis(@michaelxpettis):Xijing Research Institute dean Zhao Jian: "For years, the conventional wisdom was that China’s economy was held hostage by its real estate sector. Today, Beijing faces a new, equally perilous predicament: an economy dangerously overreliant on exports. The core issue is not that Chinese manufacturing is too competitive, but that this advantage is essentially subsidized by the severe compression of domestic consumption and labor costs. Rebalancing is no longer optional; it is urgent." Interesting Caixing article. I wouldn't say this is the policymaking consensus yet, but the speed with which similar views have been spreading in public suggests that we may be nearing a turning point in the narrative.

2026.09.23 09:22

Xijing Research Institute dean Zhao Jian: "For years, the conventional wisdom was that China’s economy was held hostage by its real estate sector. Today, Beijing faces a new, equally perilous predicament: an economy dangerously overreliant on exports. The core issue is not that Chinese manufacturing is too competitive, but that this advantage is essentially subsidized by the severe compression of domestic consumption and labor costs. Rebalancing is no longer optional; it is urgent." Interesting Caixing article. I wouldn't say this is the policymaking consensus yet, but the speed with which similar views have been spreading in public suggests that we may be nearing a turning point in the narrative.