Bitcoin is defying Real Yields. Real yield is simply what an investor makes after inflation. Put differently, it is the true opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset (read Bitcoin and Gold). A high real yield spikes the opportunity cost of assets that pay nothing. As such, their impact on demand is restrictive. An investor buying Bitcoin here is implicitly or explicitly sacrificing guaranteed returns above inflation with no credit risk and almost no volatility. Here's how Bitcoin responded to yields before: > 2020-early 2021: Real yields were negative, and Bitcoin exploded. > 2022: Real yields spiked from negative territory to ~1.5-2% range and Bitcoin collapsed ~75%. > 2023-2025: Real yields remained elevatedb/w 1.5-2.2% range. Bitcoin still recovered and printed a new ATH of ~$126K before the 10/10 annihilation. > 2026-Now: Real yield at 2.61% now sits at the highest cluster on the chart. Bitcoin has corrected from its 2025 peak and is now positive again. The most recent bounce has occurred in rising yields. The current regime is the most restrictive for Bitcoin in over 7 years, yet BTC is going higher.