Matt Smith(@nerdalert):The one thing I never hear from the $UBER bulls is how they will compete given Tesla’s unit economics advantage. Cybercab will be lower cost to manufacture, lower cost to operate, and also offers a better customer experience with the interior of the cab. This will directly translate to the lowest cost to operate, and therefore to the lowest customer price per mile. So while I acknowledge the value of Uber’s network and accomplishments to date, I can’t see them competing profitably under any reasonable set of scenarios. And the moat of their network strikes me as extremely fragile. It wasn’t long ago that most Uber drivers I spoke with also drove for Lyft, and they would take rides from whichever platform gave them the best earnings profile, often switching multiple times throughout a single day. As a consumer I did the same, until somewhat recently as Uber pulled away. If I’m a rider needing to choose between Uber and a Tesla Robotaxi, it’s true that I’m more familiar with the Uber and at least initially theres likely to be some stasis that prevents an immediate switch. But at sone point, all I will have to do is download the Robotaxi app and see that my rides are meaningfully cheaper with this option. So I’ll give it a whirl, and then I’ll realize that on top of being cheaper, it’s also more comfortable, more private, and an overall superior customer experience. Uber does have its advantages in this fight, but they are not durable advantages.

2026.09.07 14:22

The one thing I never hear from the $UBER bulls is how they will compete given Tesla’s unit economics advantage. Cybercab will be lower cost to manufacture, lower cost to operate, and also offers a better customer experience with the interior of the cab. This will directly translate to the lowest cost to operate, and therefore to the lowest customer price per mile. So while I acknowledge the value of Uber’s network and accomplishments to date, I can’t see them competing profitably under any reasonable set of scenarios. And the moat of their network strikes me as extremely fragile. It wasn’t long ago that most Uber drivers I spoke with also drove for Lyft, and they would take rides from whichever platform gave them the best earnings profile, often switching multiple times throughout a single day. As a consumer I did the same, until somewhat recently as Uber pulled away. If I’m a rider needing to choose between Uber and a Tesla Robotaxi, it’s true that I’m more familiar with the Uber and at least initially theres likely to be some stasis that prevents an immediate switch. But at sone point, all I will have to do is download the Robotaxi app and see that my rides are meaningfully cheaper with this option. So I’ll give it a whirl, and then I’ll realize that on top of being cheaper, it’s also more comfortable, more private, and an overall superior customer experience. Uber does have its advantages in this fight, but they are not durable advantages.

amit@amitisinvesting

2026.09.07 00:16

The $UBER vs $TSLA debate happening right now across the board is fascinating in many respects. I’ve spent all day reading both sides. I even went to ChatGPT and had a conversation with Astra because of how fascinating this debate is to me. By the way, Astra is legit. Releasing that before Anthropic’s IPO was a chess move. The frontier lab wars are only getting more intense. I am long both in small quantities. A bit of Tesla I bought a year ago at $350 and haven’t added since and a small amount of Uber I added 2 weeks ago at $75 after taking a look at the numbers. Not short any of the names but also not meaningfully long any of them at this moment either. My conclusion so far is both sides are being ridiculously extreme in their conclusion. The extreme $UBER bulls are not seriously acknowledging the direct existisitential threat to its moat via CyberCab’s pure product experience and eventual scale. The extreme $TSLA bulls are not giving any merit to the 200M+ monthly users they have, how hard is it to scale a network, how self driving might be commoditized and Uber could simply become the largest marketplace for multiple vendors, and how much time unsupervised true autonomy will take to reach any meaningful level of Uber’s 42M daily rides. Honestly, I think both will do well. I don’t think it has to be as black or white as both sides are making it. However, it is an incredible thought experiment. Uber disrupted transportation forever with technology, and now Tesla is disrupting transportation forever with autonomy. I think Uber is undervalued. I think Tesla has the most exciting potential out of all the Mag 7 over the next decade. I just think both sides are writing off the other for no reason. The funniest outcome would be an eventual partnership even though I know it’s not that likely, but I do think this is going to not be one or the other.

102

492

コミュニティへ転送

人気のあるユーザー