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New Era Finance Podcast
@new_era_finance
Weekly insights for the next era of finance. Featuring the world's leading voices in finance | Hosted by @cryptomichnl | New episode dropping weekly 🎙️
参加 September 2024
106 フォロー中    2.7K ファン
Bankruptcies don't happen the way you think they do. "I refer to it as the Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve. It goes slowly at first, and suddenly very fast." Francis Hunt, @themarketsniper, on why the system can look fine for years right up until the moment it isn't. Slow decay, then a vertical drop. That's the curve he thinks we're already on. Follow @new_era_finance for daily insights.
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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave." @themarketsniper on why the financial system isn't broken, it's working exactly as built: A debt-based system, in his framing, has one permitted direction: expansion. Contraction isn't a policy option, it's a system failure. So every crisis gets answered the same way, more debt, more liquidity, more of the thing that caused it. His model for how that ends is the Hemingway curve: gradually, then suddenly. And he points to a dress rehearsal most investors have already forgotten, Britain, 2022, when a slow-building pension problem turned into a bond market crash within days, and the Bank of England had to step back in almost overnight. Translation: the debate isn't whether the system holds this quarter. It's that a structure which can only expand has no gentle way down, so the risk doesn't build in a straight line, it builds silently and releases at once. The people who did well in the gilt crisis weren't the ones who predicted the day. They were the ones holding what forced sellers needed.
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