Chris Camillo — the investor who's turned a small stake into as much as $100M — says Tesla's robotaxi and Cybercab story is already priced into the stock. Went through the actual numbers on a whiteboard and show why we think he's missing several layers. FSD subscription revenue today, the Hardware 4 legacy fleet (6M+ vehicles), Cybercab unit economics, and where robotaxi money really comes from vs. where people assume it comes from.
Chris Camillo dismisses 1 million robotaxi making $30 billion per year and take many year.
Is Waymo or Tesla actually ahead right now?
FSD subscription revenue vs. Waymo's robotaxi revenue
Hardware payback: how fast Tesla earns back the FSD hardware cost.
The 6 million Hardware 4 cars nobody's pricing in. Add ing 6 million FSD is $6 billion per year. Any changes margins.
Cybercab unit economics $30K-$50K per vehicle, gross vs. net
Why we think this isn't priced in — the real total
What IS actually priced in: institutional ownership, optionality
Optimus, semi, AI5 chips, and the next leg up
What's coming next
We're not saying Chris is wrong about everything — we agree part of the story is priced in. Where we disagree is how much, and which pieces (FSD legacy fleet, Hardware 4 monetization, AI5/semiconductor business) the market still isn't counting.