Outlier Capital(@outliercapx):My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.

Outlier Capital

@outliercapx

The Founder. Asymmetric stocks. Generational wealth. Portfolio target: 5x+ returns in 5 years. Join 4K+ readers → Full portfolio + Theses, link.

参加 April 2026

107 フォロー中 5.7K ファン

Outlier Capital@outliercapx

2026.09.20 12:00

My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.