Outlier Capital(@outliercapx):Another question I am getting a lot: How would the $MRVL / $LITE deal actually affect $COHR $AAOI and $SIVE? It would be extremely bullish. Lumentum is sold out into 2029. Once that InP capacity is captive inside Marvell, open-market laser supply gets tighter overnight. > $COHR becomes Nvidia’s clear preferred independent source. > $SIVE’s pure-play capacity turns into an even more scarce asset. > $AAOI’s own laser fab becomes even more valuable. Fewer lasers on the open market = higher ASPs for whoever still controls capacity. The deal for the rest of the InP stack, it’s a supply-side win. Position accordingly.

2026.10.29 12:35

Another question I am getting a lot: How would the $MRVL / $LITE deal actually affect $COHR $AAOI and $SIVE? It would be extremely bullish. Lumentum is sold out into 2029. Once that InP capacity is captive inside Marvell, open-market laser supply gets tighter overnight. > $COHR becomes Nvidia’s clear preferred independent source. > $SIVE’s pure-play capacity turns into an even more scarce asset. > $AAOI’s own laser fab becomes even more valuable. Fewer lasers on the open market = higher ASPs for whoever still controls capacity. The deal for the rest of the InP stack, it’s a supply-side win. Position accordingly.

Outlier Capital@outliercapx

2026.10.29 07:56

A lot of you have been asking me to weigh in on the $MRVL / $LITE rumor. IMO, the leak probably killed the deal (if not closed yet). $MRVL has been getting hit while $LITE has ripped higher, so any premium and the dilution just got meaningfully worse. Hard to see that deal closing on attractive terms now. I think the idea makes sense, securing InP lasers is a pretty smart hedge if you’re worried about the CPO transition hitting your DSP franchise. Feels like a cleaner and more realistic target at this point could be $AAOI…