Prediction: from now on, great product leaders will get $100M comp package, not researchers. 1. 2022-2026 is all about killer models. Right now models still matter, but only for frontier tasks like science, math, trading etc. etc. You either kill cancer or you don't matter. 2. Instead, great products like muse, grokbot make AI truly accessible for people. The proliferation of AI matters way more now. 3. Open weight models make it cheaper and better, and the margin for most models will go down significantly, leading to less profits. 4. Training techniques are copyable, but unique data is not. All things equal(compute, training techniques), unique data is the new oil. Even if your training techniques are second-tier, with unique first-tier data you win. 5. Great products attract sticky users who provide unique data that lead to even better models. Therefore, product is the one that matters. We are finally entering the gold era of product visionaries.