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Ren
@ren_stocks
Investing into the AI buildout ⚡️ 308% YTD Head of AI | Product Manager #79# Bestseller on Substack Finance. Subscribe on X or on Substack to get Discord access
参加 November 2020
132 フォロー中    54.9K ファン
$MU $SNDK $SKHY Samsung and SK Hynix are both down more than 50% from their June highs, and they now trade at 2–3x their 2027–28 earnings. In every previous memory upcycle (2001, 2008, 2018, 2022), the low end for these two was 4–7x. Their price-to-book is now near 1x, a level that usually shows up only at the bottom of a real bust, with warehouses full of unsold chips, DRAM prices cut in half and quarterly losses. None of that is happening this time. Memory inventories at both companies fell below 10 days in September, and KB Securities has their earnings staying near record highs through 2028, with only a single-digit dip that year. Every new generation of GPUs and custom chips also needs new memory: HBM, SOCAMM, LPDDR5 and enterprise SSDs. As the installed base gets refreshed, each upgrade cycle turns into another round of orders. The market is pricing in a bust but the demand is ever increasing. Long $MU and $SNDK, and not selling.
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