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Rory O'Driscoll
@rodriscoll
venture capitalist @scalevp
参加 May 2009
467 フォロー中    17.2K ファン
When the AI IPOs come, the stock based comp numbers are going to be nothing like we’ve ever seen. None of that shit will matter. The only thing that matters is the growth rate and the 27 and 28 projected revenue. The reason you normally worry about SBC is because in a steady state business like Workday it really is a cash number. If you’re giving someone 500 grand every year to show up and be a middle manager, they are mentally putting those RSUs into their comp. If you stop giving them RSUs, they’re going to want cash. In a mature business, it’s totally correct to worry about SBC. A hypergrowth AI company is not that. Someone hired with a million dollar package in 2023 ended up making 51M four years later. That doesn’t mean you have to pay the next guy 51M. He would have signed up for the million he was offered. That’s the real economic stock based comp. The other 50M is just dumb luck. So it’s okay in a hypergrowth company to look past a good slug of the SBC and normalize it out. And conversely it’s not okay in a mature company because that’s real money that people are spending. It might be a little unfair that the hypergrowth company gets a free pass and the mature one doesn’t, but they get a free pass anyway, provided that revenue goes up. Once revenue stops going up, all bets are off.
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