Sonu Varghese
@sonusvarghese
Musings only. Chief Macro Strategist @CarsonGroupLLC. Advisory services through CWM, LLC, Registered Investment Advisor. Manage $7B+ for clients.
参加 February 2011
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I'd argue that the second derivative of AI capex is
1) profits/margins for chipmakers/tech companies, and excess performance for this sector
2) the growth of credit to finance to AI-buildout, including all the backstops/SPVs
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Whenever Warsh turns to specifics and get precise, it really stands out (because so much of the rest is fillers). Today he introduces another “Warsh” indicator for watching geopolitics.
The three things he has told us he watches:
1) share of the 199 pce components at >3% inflation at 6 and 12 month annualized
2) the second derivative of ai capex
3) and today, on watching the inflation spillovers from geopolitical – the difference between spot prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and so-called crack spreads.
Of those 3, the first likely came down in August, the second probably ex post will have proved to have peaked this year.
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