Abstracts of $MRVL: AI Outlook (Google, AWS) & Preview
📈Rating & Target: Maintained Buy rating with a $290 price target based on 20x FY29E EPS of $14.50.
* Strong positioning in custom silicon with major U.S. hyperscalers (Google, AWS, MSFT) and DSP ASP upside from shortages.
* Near-Term: F2Q27 revenue expected up 12% QoQ with non-GAAP GM at ~59%.
* Guidance Raise Expected: F3Q27 and FY27 revenue growth projected at 13% QoQ, with a likely full-year guidance hike from $11.5B.
* Google Silicon Boost & TPU V10 (?): Targeting ~$10B+ opportunity at Google in CY28 driven by CXL/DPU, MPU, and an equity partnership that enhances the likelihood of securing the 2028 TPU V10 (Merope)—with no read-through to MediaTek (Icefish engagement already confirmed).
* AWS Trainium 4 & NPO Scale-Up: Marvell likely at an advantage in T4 (>$3B in CY2028 with ~150% higher ASPs vs T3), driven by better progress in NPO scale-up optical networking (UALink/NVLink Fusion) post-Celestial AI acquisition
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