Takeaways - CPO Accelerates, Yet Stock Implications Vary:
•Nvidia CPO scale-out progressing faster than expected. Spectrum-X CPO switches in mass production thanks to improving yields at key component suppliers.
•Nvidia CPO scale out switch shipment forecast: 15k / 16k / 30k / 100k for 4Q26 / 1Q27 / 2Q27 / 2027.
•Scale Up OE: We revised estimates to 6.5m / 42m in 2027E / 2028E on intact NVL576 but slower T4 (likely in 1Q28)
•VRU NVL576 CPO (QM5 + 4 OEs) and NPO (QM5 + 4 OEs with sockets) progressing in parallel, though we retain full adoption of NPO for the cycle.
•Feynman scale up CPO in design likely up to 6.4T OEs for QM6 packages.
Likes
•Lumentum – CPO acceleration supports valuation; CPO/NPO revenue contribution seen at 12%/26% in CY27/CY28.
•Broadcom (3163 TT) & Bizlink (3665 TT) – Beneficiaries of CPO’s higher content vs NPO.
•Semtech (SMTC) – TIA/Driver exposure to NPO; tight supply.
Dislike
•Largan (3008 TT) – EPS contribution only NT$20/NT$97 in CY27/CY28; implied valuation of ~20x CY28 not cheap + market share assumption risks due to current supplier’s yield improvement and growing number of competitors
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