stark0xbt(@stark0xbt):Gavin Baker sat with TBPN for 33 minutes and gave real numbers on SpaceX. I ran the math on all of them. A gigawatt of AI compute on Earth costs $60B. Baker puts the same gigawatt in orbit at about $30B. “You don’t need that in space.” That is half the cost of Earth. Here’s the math. $25B of every Earth gigawatt is power and cooling. Reusable Starship launches it for about $5B. Even on my numbers that’s $40B in orbit. If that holds, every data center going up on Earth right now is the expensive version. And the only company that can launch the cheap one is SpaceX. The revenue side is the part nobody is modeling. The Google deal pays SpaceX $50B per gigawatt, 2–3x what an average neocloud gets. 4 GW is $200B. SpaceX trades at about $1.8T. The market is pricing rockets and Starlink. Compute in orbit isn’t in the model yet. The tell for me: 10,000+ employees bought on the IPO. They had a chance to sell every six months for 10 years. The people with the best information bought. All 8 numbers with the formulas are in the video. Save it.

2026.11.11 16:09

Gavin Baker sat with TBPN for 33 minutes and gave real numbers on SpaceX. I ran the math on all of them. A gigawatt of AI compute on Earth costs $60B. Baker puts the same gigawatt in orbit at about $30B. “You don’t need that in space.” That is half the cost of Earth. Here’s the math. $25B of every Earth gigawatt is power and cooling. Reusable Starship launches it for about $5B. Even on my numbers that’s $40B in orbit. If that holds, every data center going up on Earth right now is the expensive version. And the only company that can launch the cheap one is SpaceX. The revenue side is the part nobody is modeling. The Google deal pays SpaceX $50B per gigawatt, 2–3x what an average neocloud gets. 4 GW is $200B. SpaceX trades at about $1.8T. The market is pricing rockets and Starlink. Compute in orbit isn’t in the model yet. The tell for me: 10,000+ employees bought on the IPO. They had a chance to sell every six months for 10 years. The people with the best information bought. All 8 numbers with the formulas are in the video. Save it.

stark0xbt@stark0xbt

2026.09.24 18:03

Gavin Baker owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla sub-$2 billion. His biggest regret won't be either. It'll be the price you'll pay for SpaceX after the IPO. "A company like this comes once in your career. Thank God I took it. Plenty of people didn't." His analog: British East India Company. Empire scale, not tech scale. The setup: - 10,000 SpaceX employees could have sold every 6 months for a decade - Almost nobody did - Secondary pricing is a decade underpriced Baker on the Elon-Anthropic partnership: "Four months ago it didn't exist. Then it made sense. Everyone has a price." Incumbents realign around SpaceX gravity when it moves. The IPO doesn't price the company. It prices the last window.