Navarro's right and the Fed's own history proves it. Bernanke's 1997 paper with Gertler and Watson found that most of the economic damage following postwar oil shocks came from the Fed's tightening response rather than the oil itself. The Fed hiking into energy spikes is a big part of what turned the 70s oil shocks into recessions. 2011 ran this exact experiment in real time. The same oil spike hit both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed looked through it and the US expansion continued. The ECB hiked twice into it and the eurozone went straight back into recession. One of those central banks got it right. An energy shock is a tax. Nobody opts out of gas, diesel or heating so every extra dollar at the pump comes straight out of discretionary spending. Diesel at $6 flows through freight into the price of everything on a shelf. The shock does the Fed's demand destruction for it. A 25 bps hike doesn't produce a single barrel of oil. It stacks restriction on an economy where job growth averaged about 31K a month over the past year, real hourly earnings are falling and mortgage rates sit above 7%. That's fighting a supply problem with a demand weapon and the Fed's own research says it ends badly.