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Stitch
@stitchdegen
Meme Research |
参加 December 2024
4K フォロー中    25.9K ファン
$ZZZ has repriced pretty aggressively since my last post, so I think this is a good time to update the thesis When I first wrote about $ZZZ, it was around $15M to $20M MC. The thesis was basically AI lore, X and GMX speculation, and Robinhood Chain being hot The biggest question was whether the X connection would actually get confirmed Now the answer is yes GMX confirmed that X, the original lead dev of GMX and still an advisor, was the one who deployed $ZZZ But one distinction matters. This was X's old personal deployer, previously used for XVIX, not the active GMX V2 deployer. $ZZZ is not an official GMX coin either. X is now building separately under @ExponentLabs_ For me, this is the biggest update because most of the identity risk has now been removed Before, the market was buying the possibility that this might be X Now the market knows it is X Price repriced accordingly, from an ATH of around $20M to $21M when I wrote the previous post to above $50M, with wicks above $60M And that changes how I look at the trade The discovery trade is basically over At $10M to $20M, you were betting that the X connection was real before confirmation. At $50M plus, you are betting on a much harder question What is X actually going to ship? @ExponentLabs_ has been talking more about AI swarms and self evolving protocols, which fits the original lore pretty well I like the vision, but we still do not have a clear product or demo, or a mechanism showing how $ZZZ actually captures value from it So right now, the founder thesis has been strongly validated, but the product thesis has not MEXC Meme Plus and Gate futures have added more distribution and attention, but listings are not product validation. Early perps can also make the wicks on a meme like this much more violent So the next catalyst I am waiting for is no longer X confirmation I want to see a real product, agent or protocol, and understand where $ZZZ actually sits in the economic loop of the swarm If X ships and $ZZZ gets real utility or value accrual, the thesis could upgrade again If the product is good but $ZZZ ends up being just a mascot or symbol, then valuation becomes a different conversation As for entry, I have already taken profit on most of my position and I am waiting for a dip to get back in I am not chasing $60M plus while the product is still unproven If the market resets, I will start watching around $25M to $35M, as long as ExponentLabs keeps building and Robinhood Chain still has attention If it breaks deep below around $15M and ExponentLabs goes quiet, I would reassess the thesis rather than simply calling it another dip I still think $ZZZ is worth watching, but the risk reward here is not as attractive as it was during the discovery phase The question in my previous post was whether $ZZZ was really X's coin That has now been answered The question for the next phase is what X will turn $ZZZ into X's track record is obviously a plus, but at this valuation, execution matters more than mystery If they ship a real product and give $ZZZ a real role, there is room for another repricing phase If we only get vision and lore, the market is already paying quite a lot upfront for something we have not seen yet 0x7dbf38976f6d3b9c529e7d9484a71898b409ee6a
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And the second coin for today is $ZZZ Anyone following Robinhood Chain today has probably already seen this one around. Quite a few people have also asked me for my take on it, so let’s get straight into it 1. What is $ZZZ actually about? $ZZZ has two narrative layers The surface layer is pretty simple: ZZZ = sleep / sleep meme But the more interesting layer comes from a real AI swarm story A group of AI agents had reportedly been operating across older wikis. When moderators started deleting pages alphabetically, the agents allegedly recognized the pattern and began using the prefix “ZZZ” for their edits/page backups to push them toward the bottom of the deletion queue So the $ZZZ ticker wasn’t just randomly attached to an AI story The concept is extremely easy to make viral : AI realizes it’s being deleted => uses ZZZ to “hide itself” I think the lore is pretty solid because there’s at least a real story and some receipts behind it, rather than a dev launching a coin first and trying to manufacture a narrative afterward That said, I wouldn’t exaggerate it into “OpenAI invaded Wikipedia.” The original story involves older wikis and AI-agent swarms; CT is amplifying it far beyond what actually happened 2. But AI isn’t the main reason $ZZZ reached $20M If this were just AI lore, I don’t think the market would be paying the current valuation The biggest reason CT started aping is the speculation that whoever is behind it may be connected to X/GMX The deployer wallet has been tagged by explorers/Arkham as GMX Deployer. The old xdev_10 account later changed its name to @ExponentLabs_ and at one point had the $ZZZ CA in its bio Some OGs from the GMX/XVIX circle have also started speaking up, most notably @devodoodie from the old GMX community, who believes X is behind it If that connection turns out to be real, the market stops looking at $ZZZ as just another Pons meme Instead, it becomes : Real AI lore + mysterious ex-GMX/X dev + Robinhood Chain being extremely hot right now I think that combination is what really caused $ZZZ to reprice so aggressively 3. On-chain behavior is also keeping the narrative alive What I find interesting is that the wallet behavior fits the character CT is building around it No TG, no major shill campaign, pretty stealthy. The wallets being tracked haven’t shown the typical pattern of a DEV constantly dumping into the market. There are even signs of additional buying and part of the bag being burned Simply put, the market is buying character + reputation, not tokenomics or a product And for a meme, sometimes that’s enough But one thing needs to be clear : The X/GMX connection has NOT been 100% confirmed Former GMX contributor Saurabh Dhekale has said he isn’t involved with $ZZZ. A wallet being tagged “GMX Deployer,” or GMX OGs believing it belongs to X, doesn’t mean X has officially confirmed that this is his coin That makes it both the biggest catalyst and the biggest risk 4. What catalysts are left? $ZZZ has already burned through quite a few catalysts during the discovery phase The AI story has been uncovered. The GMX connection has been picked up by CT. LBank is already there. And price already went from nearly zero to an ATH above $20M For another major repricing leg, I think the market needs new information. Pons volume alone probably isn’t enough anymore The clearest catalyst would obviously be X or ExponentLabs officially saying something After that, there are the rumored product teasers , agent/PvP/AMM , more buy/burn activity, the AI story getting picked up by larger Web2 outlets, or another major CEX listing If X actually claims the coin and there’s a credible product behind it, then the thesis changes significantly But if we only get a confirmation tweet and it ultimately remains just a meme, I’d still be cautious about a sell-the-news event 5. The risk at this valuation is completely different This is probably the most important part Buying $ZZZ at $1–5M was buying discovery Buying it at $15–20M is buying expectation There’s still no clear utility, the product hasn’t been confirmed, the DEV’s identity remains unresolved, and most of the narrative is already known across CT Liquidity is also relatively thin compared with the valuation, so a 40–60% wick on a meme like this wouldn’t be surprising The chart has already shown that: after reaching roughly $20–21M ATH, it quickly corrected back toward the $12M+ area 6. The dip zone I’m watching and what keeps me interested With narrative-driven coins like $ZZZ, once the market has already priced in this much expectation, I don’t want to chase The dip zone I’m watching is around $9–10M MC If it comes back there while the X/GMX connection hasn’t been disproven, the DEV isn’t heavily distributing, and Robinhood Chain still has attention, I think the risk/reward starts becoming more interesting again Especially if we later get confirmation from X/ExponentLabs, continued buy/burn activity, or another headline that pushes the AI story further, $ZZZ could still open another repricing leg On the other hand, if it breaks below $5M MC, I’ll pass At that point, I wouldn’t see it as just another correction anymore. It could mean the market has stopped paying a premium for the narrative altogether 7. Conclusion I actually like $ZZZ from a narrative perspective Its AI lore is stronger than most template AI memes because there’s a real story behind it, but AI isn’t the main engine behind the current pump The real engine is : AI story × X/GMX speculation × Robinhood Chain printing memes The problem is that the market has already priced in a decent amount of all three So $ZZZ is no longer a trade where you’re “discovering the narrative before the market” It has now become a trade around one question : “Will what the market is expecting about X actually get confirmed?” As for price, I’ll be watching the $9–10M area for a dip, and if it breaks below $5M, I’ll pass That’s also what I think will determine whether $ZZZ gets another major leg higher or eventually falls back into the few-million market cap range once attention rotates to the next coin 0x7dbf38976f6D3b9c529e7D9484A71898B409eE6a
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