UBS - $AMD is much less capacity constrained than $INTC, AMD server CPU revenue growing at 80% this year
"The market obviously realizes that INTC’s guidance reads very favorably for AMD – particularly server CPU given commentary that implies INTC is undershipping the market by ~20%. The main question here is AMD’s supply, but our field work through the Q was indicating that supply for INTC’s parts was far more constrained than for AMD parts – so we think this sets up very well for AMD and we see revenue being guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (Street ~$10.4B).
Server CPU: Intel’s CY2026 outlook implies its Data Center & AI segment growing ~40% Y/Y and we now see AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year with units up ~40-45% and pricing now up in the 20% range – helped in part by the ramp of the new Venice parts. From a competitive standpoint, our checks remain constructive. AMD’s CPU portfolio continues to compare favorably with Intel’s offerings, and the lack of meaningful timeline updates for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids reinforces our view that AMD should maintain a competitive advantage across the x86 ecosystem through C2026.
Data center GPU: given our work on the rack timing, we reduce our C2026 DC GPU revenue slightly from $14.5B to $14B with some revenue pulled out of both CQ3 and CQ4, but overall we are raising our C2026/2027/2028 revs/EPS from $47B/$71B/$91B to $49B/$75B/$95B and from $6.65/$11.57/$15.94 to $7.65/$13.09/$17.62 driven almost entirely by data center CPU. We increase our PT to $455 from $310, based on a 35x avg peer multiple applied to C2027 EPS. Because AMD is in the very early stages of ramping into a huge XPU TAM, we would argue that the stock should command a higher multiple than peers and given our ~$18 EPS in C2028, think a ~$455 PT makes sense at ~25x PE multiple compared to peers’ average of 24x for C2027E."