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Tech Fund
@techfund1
Engineer/Portfolio Manager - Join our newsletter with 19,000+ subscribers -
参加 February 2021
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I halved my $GOOGL position: - They haven't released a new model in ages - Gemini Pro regularly crashes - A lot of the best people in AI just left - Search is 60% of profits, which is going to get largely disrupted - The parts I like are GCP and Youtube, but these are small parts of the business (35% or so) - 27x forward PE, fairly expensive given the risk in Search I've kept half for the moment on the hope they'll release a cool model soon, but all of this position is pure profit. I first invested in Google in 2011 and have gradually been selling over the past two years as Anthropic is just on a much faster innovation cadence and given my bearishness on Search. Anthropic is launching one impressive model after another. I do all my coding with Claude. Whenever I try one of these open-source models, they're garbage. It's called 'benchmaxing', as Palantir explained well - i.e. make the model look good on predefined benchmarks, but not being able to handle real workloads that engineers need. My impression is that Anthropic is running away with this and that the gap with competition will only increase from here. Anthropic has the cash to build custom data sets, has the talent, and the compute. Google seems to be lacking in execution. I don't want to write them off fully, but it certainly doesn't feel like high conviction.
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