micron reports tomorrow, and many have asked me thoughts abt the forward guidance. it could look like a miss even if the business keeps growing.
here's why.
this quarter had 14 weeks (micron's fiscal year had an extra one). next quarter has 13. that alone takes ~7% off the headline before prices or volumes move.
then the price caps. about half of micron's revenue is moving into multi-year deals, and the first ones cap prices at april-june levels. HBM is already priced for all of 2026.
per day, revenue should still grow ~8-12%. the headline may not show it.
our read: the guide lands at this quarter's revenue +~4%.
given Tessara's $56B base case for this quarter, that's ~$57B, with ~87.5% gross margin and ~$35-36 EPS.
if micron guides $59B+ on a ~$56B quarter. that would mean the caps bind far less than we think
3 things i'm listening for on the call:
1. how much revenue now sits under capped contracts
2. whether $MU adjusts its growth figures for the lost week
3. HBM4 pricing for 2027
big day ahead for all memory investors.